UFC 262: Oliveira vs Chandler Post-Fight Analysis
UFC 262 Main Event Analysis
[Originally published May 2021]
Result:
Charles Oliveira defeats Michael Chandler by TKO at 0:19 of the 2nd round
Major Takeaways:
Chandler has “fuck you” power
Oliveira can no longer be considered a quitter, at least for the time being.
Chandler made a decision at the end of the 1st round to stay in Oliveira’s guard and not stand him up, this decision may have cost him the fight but based off the finish perhaps not.
Oliveira’s grappling ability acts as a fall back plan if he is outclassed on the feet. Chandler does not have this luxury.
Round 1:
Opening Striking: (0:00–0:42)
Oliveira opens up very kick heavy, including 2 leg kicks that knockdown Chandler, he places a lot of weight in the front leg. We see plenty of leg kicks and some front kicks mixed in for good measure. Chandler opens with the same jab high, right to the body attack he used for the entirety of the Hooker fight. In that fight he went 2:30 before throwing the left to the head and it ended the fight. This time he throws it 1:00 in albeit without the stance switch. I highly doubt that Chandler and Hooft were expecting that to work again but it does fit into Chandler saying that he doesn’t have an especially diverse arsenal of strikes. Neither fighter backing down at this point which was surprising to see, especially on Oliveira’s part. Chandler’s power shows up 40 seconds into the fight with a left that even through Oliveira’s high guard manages to crack him a bit.
Takedown Attempt/Back Take: (0:42–1:30)
Oliveira shoots for a double that Chandler transitions into an arm-in guillotine. It’s never actually tight however, despite what Rogan and DC believed. Oliveira pops his head up and is now only 1 leg away from having mount. Chandler does his best to create space and tries to turn and stand up but Oliveira closes distance and as Chandler is turning to stand up he takes the back and gets both hooks in. He immediately begins attacking the RNC and going for wrist control. At this point Chandler stands up and right before he goes for the back slam Oliveira locks in the body triangle.
Hand Fighting and Scramble: (1:30–2:20)
And here we get to some very interesting grappling. The obvious attack here for Oliveira is the rear naked choke, and to accomplish that he needs to get an arm over Chandler’s shoulder and under the chin. Once that arm is in the fight is most likely over. So Chandler does the right thing and begins hand fighting like his life depends on it. Chandler is trying to keep his arms up so that Charles cannot get the arm under his chin. Both fighters are also battling for wrist control at this point. Now this is the beginning of Chandler’s ingenious scramble/reversal (thank you to u/GenTelGuy and u/ImEdwardd) . The first thing we can notice here is how Chandler forces both of Oliveira’s arms above his head (credit to u/alexanderknox for pointing this out to me). Whilst holding Oliveira’s arms above his head Chandler now begins to attack the body triangle. He times this perfectly as right when Oliveira begins to attempt to readjust his grip Chandler bucks violently creating just an inch or two which he then rotates completely, shifting himself into guard. Obviously not wanting to stay on the ground with Oliveira he lets him up and we return to the feet
Closing Striking Exchange: (3:56–5:00)
For some reason Oliveira looks significantly less sharper on the feet here, I’m not sure if some of the grappling had tired him out but he throws much less and mainly looks to dodge Chandler’s strikes. Chandler takes immediate advantage of this doing an excellent job of cage cutting and forcing Oliveira to the cage with a flurry of jabs. Now what happens here is pretty interesting. Chandler seems to knock down Oliveira with a right but I honestly think Oliveira was looking for a takedown, just in a very awkward and poorly timed manner. Now on his knees, Chandler rains down hell on Oliveira with right hand after right hand but almost none of them land. Oliveira is usually quite well-known for his poor head movement but he displays incredible movement here on the ground as he slips and ducks almost every punch from Chandler. He now pulls guard and forces Chandler to fight through it. And then even all of the ground and pound thrown from Oliveira’s guard misses, hitting the canvas quite frequently. Oliveira holds onto a body lock and manages to survive the round. Now, like many when watching the fight I believed Oliveira to be in serious trouble during this final striking exchange. But watching it back I don’t believe that Oliveira was ever hurt at all and a stoppage would have been ill-advised.
2nd Round:
Finish: (0:00–0:19)
Obviously the shortest segment of the fight, After rewatching the finish I must say that it was an incredibly crisp piece of boxing from Charles Oliveira. Right before, Chandler goes in for a power right to the body as Oliveira misses with a straight right that Chandler ducks under as he’s punching. Both punches miss and as Chandler returns to his stance and gets back to an upright position he is immediately left with an incredibly precise left hook right on the jaw. The timing and precision of this strike is something I would expect from someone like Israel Adesanya or Dustin Poirier, so I am curious to see what we will continue to see from Do Bronx. It is timed to perfection and knocks Chandler down. However he is still not out completely just dazed so he gets to his feet and attempts to circle out to his right away from Oliveira’s power hand. He eats a few elbows and rights and as he’s sprinting and Oliveira is chasing him he gets hit with a clean running left hook that looks quite similar to the left that KO’d Hooker in Chandler’s win back in January. He is dropped, Oliveira jumps on him and finishes the fight, cementing himself as the new undisputed UFC Lightweight Champion.
Final Thoughts/Notes:
Oliveira is worryingly hittable, considering that his next fight will be against either Dustin Poirier or Conor McGregor it is a concern for me.
Oliveira has an underrated chin, eating multiple shots from Michael Chandler is no small feat
I would not be surprised to see Michael Chandler back in a UFC title fight. He has power to rival Justin Gaethje and his ground game is quite solid. However his age is a concern so he better be “here for a good time not a long time” as he has stated previously.
Oliveira vs Poirier just became a very interesting fight, I was very impressed with Oliveira in this fight.
Chandler was not lying when he said that he does not have too many types of punches, just a couple that are really good. His right to the body then left to the head combo is very clearly his bread and butter.
Matchups to Make:
Oliveira vs Winner of UFC 264
Chandler vs Gaethje
Dariush vs Loser of UFC 264 (Unlikely to happen if McGregor is the loser)
Ferguson :(